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Self-fulfilling crisis : ウィキペディア英語版 | Self-fulfilling crisis Self-fulfilling crisis refers to a situation that a financial crisis is not directly caused by the unhealthy economic fundamental conditions or improper government policies, but a consequence of pessimistic expectations of investors. In other words, investors’ fear of the crisis makes the crisis inevitable, which justified their initial expectations. == Self-fulfilling mechanism ==
Self-fulfilling crisis is a mechanism of crisis which highlights the role of expectations. This is one application of the self-fulfilling prophecy in economics. Typically financial crises happen as a consequence of the government’s inability to maintain its commitments, and a benevolent government will compare the benefits and costs of maintaining the original policies. When investors believe the government is unable to honor its commitments, the expectation itself and the following optimal behaviors of the investors, such as stopping purchasing the newly issued government bond or selling the local currency for foreign currency, will increase cost for the government to adhere to the promised policy. When the cost of maintaining the committed policy is very high, the government finds it optimal to abandon the existing policy. Consequently, a crisis happens when government’s inability to maintain the committed policy ends up justifying investors' pessimism. The most widely studied self-fulfilling crises include currency crisis and debt crisis.
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア(Wikipedia)』 ■ウィキペディアで「Self-fulfilling crisis」の詳細全文を読む
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